Pork: Characteristics
How backfat probes and meat acidity set a carcass's price
How backfat probes and meat acidity set a carcass's price What this tab covers The supply and physical characteristics of the commodity. Supply: current production, inventories and stocks, capacity utilisation, geographic and producer concentration, how fast supply responds to price, the project pipeline and capital spending, and logistics and export flows. Material: the physical and chemical properties that set its grade, price and end uses (for example purity and conductivity for metals, API gravity, sulfur and energy content for fuels, moisture, protein and fibre quality for crops).Supply volume characteristics
| Characteristic | Figure | What it means | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current production volume | 125.4 Mt of pig meat (2024, record); 120.7 Mt CWE in USDA-covered countries (2026f) | Output doubled from 69.7 Mt in 1990. China produces about half; it lost about 9% of world output in a year after African swine fever from 2018 and has since recovered. | FAOSTAT 2024; USDA PSD, Oct 2026 |
| Inventory and stock levels | about 0.8% of a year's use: world ending stocks 0.90 Mt CWE against 119.3 Mt consumption (2026f) | US cold-storage pork stocks are forecast at 450 million lb at end-2026, about 2% of annual use. China keeps a state frozen pork reserve, buying when prices slump and releasing when they spike (volume not published). The real stock is the sow herd: China had 39.61 million breeding sows at end-2025. | USDA PSD and WASDE, Oct 2026; Muyuan 2025 annual report |
| Capacity utilisation | not published as a world figure | Slaughter utilisation is not reported globally. Large plants are big: Smithfield's eight US plants can process about 108,000 hogs a day. In China, Muyuan slaughtered 28.66 million of the 77.98 million hogs it sold in 2025, so most of its pigs still went to other plants, and Chinese hog margins collapsed in 2025 on oversupply. | Smithfield 10-K FY2025; Muyuan 2025 annual report |
| Geographic and producer concentration | China 45.5%, top-3 (China, US, Brazil) 59.9%, HHI 2,266; exports: US 18.0%, Spain 17.5% of value | Production is moderately concentrated by country. Muyuan sold about 10.8% of China's hogs in 2025. In the US the four largest packers slaughter about two-thirds of hogs (indicative). | FAOSTAT 2024; UN Comtrade 2024; Muyuan 2025; USDA Packers and Stockyards Division annual report, 2022 (indicative) |
| Supply elasticity | medium: about 10-12 months from a breeding decision to more pork | Sow gestation is about 114 days and pigs reach slaughter weight about six months after birth, and a sow has two litters a year. This gives a short, sharp hog cycle. Disease (African swine fever) and feed costs override it. | content_v2 pork; Morgan (1979) |
| Project pipeline and CapEx | capacity is being cut, not added, in China | China's authorities pushed producers to cut the sow herd in 2025 after prices fell; Muyuan targets 38 million head of slaughter in 2026. USDA forecasts China's pork imports falling from 1.31 Mt (2024) to 0.84 Mt (2026). Brazil and Spain are expanding exports. CapEx totals are not published. | Muyuan 2025 annual report; USDA PSD, Oct 2026 |
| Logistics and export flows | at least 7% of output exported: listed exporters shipped about 8.7 Mt CWE of 120.7 Mt (2026f) | The US (3.20 Mt), EU (3.05 Mt) and Latin America (2.26 Mt) lead, with Canada also large. Frozen pork moves in reefer containers to Japan, Mexico, China and South Korea; Mexico takes much US pork by truck and rail. Bottlenecks are sanitary: ASF bans on whole regions (Germany lost access to China in 2020) and plant approvals. | USDA PSD, Oct 2026; UN Comtrade 2024 |
Material characteristics Agricultural / soft commodity
Pig carcasses are priced on weight and lean meat percentage, measured by probes of backfat and loin depth. Meat quality depends on post-slaughter pH: fast acidification gives pale, soft, exudative (PSE) meat with high drip loss. Cuts such as bellies, loins and hams trade separately, and disease freedom (ASF, trichinella) sets market access.
| Property | Value / specification | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lean meat percentage | EU SEUROP classes: S at least 60%, E 55-60%, U 50-55%, R 45-50% | Higher lean content earns higher carcass prices under EU and Chinese grading | EU Regulation 1308/2013 and 2017/1182 (indicative) |
| Carcass weight | world average 84 kg; US 97 kg, China 81 kg, India 40 kg (2024) | Heavier carcasses lower cost per kg at the plant | FAOSTAT 2024 |
| Price basis | CME Lean Hog futures settle on the CME Lean Hog Index (carcass weight, USD per cwt) | The index sets US hog and pork contract prices | CME Group |
| Meat quality (pH) | pH at 45 minutes below about 5.8 signals PSE risk; ultimate pH about 5.5-5.8 | PSE meat loses water and value in curing and slicing | meat science standard practice (indicative) |
| Backfat thickness | about 10-20 mm at the P2 site in modern lean genetics | Thin fat raises lean yield; bellies need some fat for bacon | industry grading practice (indicative) |
| Protein content | lean raw pork about 21 g per 100 g | Sets nutritional value for processed products | USDA FoodData Central (indicative) |