Pork: Criticality

Why Beijing keeps a strategic pork reserve

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	10.1%	4.3%	18.0%	+$5.04 bn	127%	No	Second-largest producer (10.1% of world output in 2024, FAOSTAT) and largest exporter (18.0% of HS 0203 export value, UN Comtrade), shipping about 25% of its output in 2025 (WASDE).
EU	Low	17.0%	44.5%	59.4%	+$6.12 bn	115%	No	Second-largest producing bloc (21.3 Mt in 2024, USDA PSD) and a major exporter: Spain 17.5%, Germany 11.2% and Denmark 7.6% of world export value in 2024, while Italy (8.9%) and Poland (5.6%) are big importers (UN Comtrade).
India	Low	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	–	No	Small producer (0.37 Mt in 2024, FAOSTAT) with a shrinking backyard herd and no significant trade.
China	Low	45.5%	6.0%	0.3%	−$1.97 bn	99%	No	Largest producer (45.5% of world output in 2024, FAOSTAT) and a swing importer: 6.0% of world import value in 2024, with imports forecast to fall from 1.31 Mt (2024) to 0.84 Mt (2026) (UN Comtrade; USDA PSD).
Japan	High	1.0%	12.3%	0.0%	−$4.25 bn	46%	No	Largest importer by value (12.3% of world imports in 2024, UN Comtrade), buying 1.51 Mt in 2026 (USDA PSD forecast).
Latin America	Low	8.2%	12.9%	11.7%	−$261.3 m	97%	no list	Brazil produces 4.3% of world pork and supplies 7.8% of export value; Mexico is the second-largest importer by value (9.4%) and largest by volume (1.70 Mt in 2026) (FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade; USDA PSD).
Middle East	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	–	no list	Pork is a negligible part of trade and consumption for religious reasons; no Middle Eastern country appears among the top importers (UN Comtrade 2024).
Australia	Medium	0.4%	1.8%	0.4%	−$489.3 m	74%	No	Not among the top six exporters or importers of pork in 2024 (UN Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Pork is not on any critical raw materials list. For China, though, it is a strategic food whose price weighs heavily on consumer inflation, which is why Beijing keeps a reserve. Production concentration (HHI 2,266) is moderate, and disease is the main hazard. African swine fever has no widely used vaccine and spreads through wild boar, vehicles and feed. Exporters face sudden bans when it appears. Feed dependence on corn and soybeans ties pork security to grain and oilseed trade.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,266 moderately concentrated