Pork: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Pork prices depend on the pig cycle, feed costs, and disease, especially African swine fever, which cut China's herd sharply in 2019. China is the largest producer and consumer, so its imports swing world prices.
Market price IMF global price of swine US cents/lb · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkPork and Maize
Monthly changes 0.07 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.40 moderate correlation Last 5 years -0.14 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Maize tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.14) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Pork ≈ 6.27 × (Maize)0.47 R² 0.33 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 4.6% higher pork price over the long run. Units: US cents/lb and $/mt.Chart: Pork and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Pork price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Maize is the main energy feed for pigs, so feed prices set much of the cost of raising them. The link shows over a year rather than a month: monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly moves at 0.40.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSoybean meal is the main protein in pig diets, and Chinese pig numbers drive world soybean imports. The swine price barely tracks soybeans: monthly moves correlate at 0.04 and yearly moves at 0.27, as disease swamps feed costs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChicken and pork compete on price for the same shoppers, and both use the same maize and soybean feed. Monthly moves correlate at 0.27 and yearly moves at 0.44, the strongest link for pork here.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBeef and pork compete for meat spending, so a jump in one pushes some buyers to the other. Monthly moves correlate at 0.20 and yearly moves at 0.46, a substitute link with different production cycles.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLysine is added to pig feed so farmers can use less soybean meal, and China makes most of it. Its price tends to rise when pig herds grow, but amino acids have no public price series here.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Diesel and power for feed mills, heated sheds and transport are pig farm costs. The diesel proxy shows little monthly link at 0.06, but yearly moves correlate at 0.50, as costs and general inflation pass through slowly.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.