Soybeans: Criticality

Why soybeans sit at the heart of China's food security

Why soybeans sit at the heart of China's food security What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	29.9%	0.9%	25.2%	+$29.1 bn	158%	No	Second-largest grower (27% of 2025/26 output) and exporter (31.1% of 2024 export value), increasingly crushing at home for renewable diesel; exports fell to 1,515 million bu in 2025/26 amid tariffs on sales to China (WASDE).
EU	High	0.8%	15.4%	4.5%	−$13.0 bn	17%	No	Structural importer of beans (14.0 Mt in 2025/26) and the largest importer of meal (20.6 Mt in 2024/25); the EU deforestation regulation will require traceability for soy (WASDE; UN Comtrade).
India	Medium	3.8%	3.7%	0.8%	−$3.48 bn	91%	No	Fifth-largest grower (3.8% of 2024 output) and a small non-GM meal exporter (3.3% of world meal export value in 2024), but the largest importer of soybean oil (35.3% of world import value in 2024).
China	High	5.2%	44.3%	0.8%	−$52.0 bn	15%	No	Takes 65.3% of world bean import value (2024) and about 113 Mt of beans in 2025/26, while growing only 20.9 Mt; holds 44 Mt of stocks (WASDE; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.1%	2.3%	0.0%	−$2.76 bn	7%	No	Small importer (2.4% of world bean import value, 2024) for food and crushing; historically invested in Brazilian soy after the 1973 US embargo.
Latin America	Low	53.0%	9.6%	61.9%	+$62.6 bn	188%	no list	Brazil (54.3% of 2024 bean export value), Argentina (44.4% of soybean oil and 22.4% of meal exports) and Paraguay (4.0%) dominate world trade.
Middle East	High	0.1%	1.3%	0.4%	−$1.07 bn	4%	no list	Importer of beans and meal for poultry: Egypt (2.5%) and Turkey (2.2%) of bean imports in 2024; Iran is the top buyer of Indian soymeal (SOPA 2023-24).
Australia	Low	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	−$461.8 m	102%	No	Not a significant producer or trader of soybeans in 2024 UN Comtrade or FAOSTAT rankings.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Soybeans are not on mineral critical lists, but they are central to China's food security. Beijing allowed imports in the mid-1990s to feed more pigs and chickens; by 2008 China bought over half of world trade (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 231). With Brazil and the US supplying 85% of exports, buyers face weather risk in one and political risk in the other. China's 25% tariff on US beans in 2018 shifted purchases to Brazil (Radetzki & Wårell, pdf p. 73). Some suggest the 1973 US embargo prompted Japan to invest in Brazilian supply (Morgan, pdf p. 311). Rapeseed and fishmeal partly substitute.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,420 moderately concentrated