Soybeans: Cycles

A 30% rise in a year, yet real prices are low

The World Bank soybean price was $524/t in September 2026, up 30% on a year earlier ($404) but 6% below five years ago ($558). The ten-year range is $340 to $737. In real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $575 in 2022 to $357 in 2025, the lowest since at least 2010. Prices rise in spring as US stocks dwindle and fall at harvest (Morgan, pdf p. 455), with South America's harvest as a counter-season. Booms followed the 1973 protein shortage, the China-led 2006-08 surge, when prices more than doubled (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 231), and drought in the Americas.

Soybeans price

Chart: Soybeans monthly price

Chart: Soybeans annual real price

Super-cycles in soybeans

Soybeans follow the grain super-cycles: big booms in 1972-74, 2006-08, 2010-12 and 2020-22, each followed by long slides. In nominal terms the World Bank price rose from about $94/t in 1960 to a $737/t monthly peak in June 2022, but in real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $540/t in 2012 to $357/t in 2025. Demand has grown steadily with Chinese meat consumption and biofuel mandates, while supply responds fast because Brazil can add millions of hectares in a few seasons. That combination tends to cap booms at two or three years. Policy shocks, from the 1973 US export embargo to the 2018 and 2025 US-China tariff fights, cause sharp spikes and breaks.

1. 1972-1974

   Soviet grain purchases, a failed Peruvian anchovy catch (fishmeal) and low US stocks drove a protein shortage. The Nixon administration embargoed soybean exports on 27 June 1973; Japan then invested in Brazilian soy as an alternative source.

   World Bank monthly average rose from $107/t (Jan 1970) to $470/t (Jun 1973); Morgan (Merchants of Grain) notes prices exceeded a record $10/bu

2. 2006-2008

   Chinese import growth, biofuel mandates and high oil prices lifted all oilseeds, then the financial crisis broke the rally.

   World Bank monthly average $257/t (Jan 2006) to $637/t (Jul 2008)

3. 2010-2012

   La Nina drought in South America and the 2012 US Midwest drought cut supply while Chinese imports kept rising.

   monthly average peak $684/t (Aug 2012), then a long slide to $367/t (Sep 2015)

4. 2018-2022

   The 2018 US-China tariff war pushed prices to a $340/t low (May 2019). China's pig-herd rebuild after African swine fever, South American drought and the 2022 war in Ukraine (sunflower oil) then lifted the complex.

   monthly averages: $340/t (May 2019) to an all-time high of $737/t (Jun 2022); soybean oil peaked at $1,963/t (May 2022)

5. 2024-2026

   Record Brazilian crops and a new US-China tariff fight in 2025 pushed prices down, while US biofuel policy lifted soybean oil far more than beans.

   monthly averages: soybeans $391/t (Sep 2024) to $524/t (Sep 2026); soybean oil $912/t (Feb 2024) to $1,781/t (May 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Chinese demand for feed protein. China imports about 60% of world soybean trade (113 Mt in 2025/26) for its pig and poultry sector. Herd size, feed formulation rules and state reserve buying move world prices.
• South American weather and area expansion. Brazil and Argentina grow over half the crop. La Nina droughts cut output; new Cerrado land adds supply within two to three seasons.
• Biofuel policy. US renewable diesel credits and blending mandates in Brazil, Argentina and Indonesia (palm) set a floor under vegetable oil prices and shift value from meal to oil.
• Trade policy. Tariffs, export taxes and embargoes (US 1973, US-China 2018 and 2025, Argentine export duties) reroute flows and open price gaps between origins.
• Energy and freight costs. Diesel, fertiliser and ocean freight are a large share of delivered cost, so oil price cycles feed through.

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