Soybeans: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Soybeans are crushed into meal for animal feed and oil for food and biodiesel. Prices are set on the Chicago exchange by harvests in Brazil, the United States and Argentina, Chinese import demand and the value of the oil and meal.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Soybeans $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkSoybeans and Biodiesel (FAME)
Monthly changes 0.56 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.84 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.35 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Soybeans ≈ 3.45 × (Biodiesel (FAME))0.71 R² 0.72 On this fit, a 10% higher Biodiesel (FAME) price goes with a 7.0% higher soybeans price over the long run. Units: $/mt and US$/t.Chart: Soybeans and Biodiesel (FAME) prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Soybeans price against Biodiesel (FAME) price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Soybean oil is the main feedstock for US biodiesel, and the biodiesel proxy here is the soybean oil price itself. Monthly moves correlate at 0.56 and yearly moves at 0.84, as the oil share of the crush value moves the whole bean.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMaize and soybeans compete for the same farmland in the American Midwest and Brazil, so farmers switch between them each season. Prices move together fairly closely: monthly moves correlate at 0.53 and yearly moves at 0.76, driven by weather, acreage and the dollar.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPalm oil is the cheapest vegetable oil and the main rival to soybean oil in food, especially in India. When palm is scarce, buyers switch to soy oil. Monthly moves correlate at 0.43 and yearly moves at 0.70.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsFishmeal and soybean meal are both protein for animal and fish feed, and feed mixers swap between them on price. The link is loose because fishmeal depends on Peruvian anchovy catches: monthly moves correlate at only 0.06, rising to 0.40 for yearly moves.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChicken farming is a major user of soybean meal, so a growing poultry industry supports bean demand, while feed costs raise chicken prices. Monthly moves correlate at only 0.18 and yearly moves at 0.26, because meat prices also depend on disease and consumer demand.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDiesel powers planting, harvesting and transport of the crop, and higher fuel prices also lift demand for soy-based biodiesel. The diesel proxy correlates with soybeans at 0.29 for monthly moves and 0.67 for yearly moves, a mix of cost and the fuel link.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.