Sunflower: Cycles

How the 2022 invasion sent prices soaring

Sunflower oil averaged $1,390/t in September 2026, against $1,312 a year earlier and $1,310 five years earlier. The ten-year range is $688 to $2,361. The high came after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 closed Black Sea ports. Prices follow palm and soybean oil, crude oil through biodiesel, and Black Sea weather. Drought in southern Russia and Ukraine is the main supply shock. Acreage can shift within a season between sunflowers, maize and wheat.

Sunflower oil price

Chart: Sunflower oil monthly price

Super-cycles in sunflower

Sunflower oil follows the vegetable oil complex, with extra spikes when the Black Sea crop fails or is disrupted. The World Bank series (from 2002) went from $543/t in August 2003 to $2,045/t in June 2008, fell to $688/t in January 2019, then hit a record $2,361/t in March 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was $1,390/t in September 2026. The long-run story is a supply boom: Russian and Ukrainian output rose about 2.6 times, from 10.9 Mt in 2005/06 to 28.2 Mt in 2025/26 (USDA PSD), which kept prices low between shocks.

1. 2007-2008

   Drought in Ukraine and Russia in 2007, Black Sea export duties, high crude oil and biofuel demand drove the first big spike.

   World Bank monthly average from $543/t (August 2003) to $2,045/t (June 2008); 2009 average $855/t

2. 2010-2011

   Russia's 2010 drought cut its crop to 5.0 Mt (USDA PSD) and lifted all oils.

   $1,705/t (February 2011), then a long decline to $688/t (January 2019) as Black Sea output grew

3. 2021-2022

   Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports in early 2022; Ukraine's crop fell from 17.5 Mt (2021/22) to 12.2 Mt (2022/23) (USDA PSD).

   $730/t (March 2020) to a record $2,361/t (March 2022); 2023 average $1,007/t

4. 2025-2026

   Ukraine's record-low 10.8 Mt crop in 2025 (APK-Inform) cut oil exports to about 4.3 Mt, while Indian demand rose.

   $925/t (February 2024) to $1,508/t (June 2026); $1,390/t in September 2026

What drives the cycle

• Black Sea weather. Russia and Ukraine grow over half of world output; summer drought there tightens the whole market.
• War and port access in Ukraine. Shipping risk and port closures cut exports and raise insurance and freight costs.
• Russian and Ukrainian export duties. Duties on seed and oil change how much reaches world markets and where it is crushed.
• Price spreads to soybean and palm oil. India and other buyers switch oils quickly when sunflower's premium widens.
• Indian import duties. India is the largest buyer; duty changes move demand by hundreds of thousands of tonnes a month.

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