Sunflower: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Sunflower oil comes mainly from Ukraine and Russia, so Black Sea harvests, export rules and war risk set its price. It is the cooking oil of choice in many countries, including large parts of India, and competes with other vegetable oils.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Sunflower oil $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkSunflower and Rapeseed
Monthly changes 0.69 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.91 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.76 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Sunflower ≈ 0.475 × (Rapeseed)1.11 R² 0.85 On this fit, a 10% higher rapeseed price goes with a 11.1% higher sunflower price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Sunflower and Rapeseed prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Sunflower price against Rapeseed price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Rapeseed oil is grown in the same region and used the same way in food. The two prices move nearly together: monthly moves correlate at 0.69, yearly moves at 0.91, and in the last five years monthly moves correlate at 0.76.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIndian and other importers switch between palm and sunflower oil when the price gap widens, which keeps the two prices linked. Monthly moves correlate at 0.66 and yearly moves at 0.87.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSoybean oil is the second largest edible oil after palm. The series here is the whole bean, which also includes meal value, so the link is weaker: monthly moves correlate at 0.46 and yearly moves at 0.75.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSunflower oil is rarely made into biodiesel itself, but fuel demand for soy and rapeseed oil tightens the whole oil market. The biodiesel proxy is the soybean oil price; monthly moves correlate at 0.68 and yearly moves at 0.92.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsThe Black Sea exports both wheat and sunflower oil, so weather, shipping risk and export bans in the region hit both at once. Monthly moves correlate at 0.41, yearly moves at 0.72 and the last five years at 0.51, when war risk dominated.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsCrude oil affects vegetable oils through biofuel demand, fertiliser and freight costs. For sunflower oil this common driver shows moderately: monthly moves correlate at 0.34 and yearly moves at 0.58.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.