Tobacco: Criticality

When one crop dominates a nation's exports

When one crop dominates a nation's exports What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	2.4%	7.8%	8.5%	+$271.2 m	No	Producer (2.4% of world output, 147.5 kt in 2024, FAOSTAT) and both exporter (8.5% of export value) and importer (7.8% of import value) in 2024.
EU	High	1.7%	34.4%	16.1%	−$1.52 bn	No	Importer for manufacturing: Germany 9.7% and Poland 8.0% of world import value in 2024.
India	Low	12.0%	0.0%	10.8%	+$1.37 bn	No	Second-largest producer (12.0%) and exporter by value (10.8%) in 2024, with a regulated FCV crop and a large domestic bidi and smokeless market.
China	Medium	37.3%	18.1%	4.1%	−$1.36 bn	No	Largest producer (37.3% of output) and largest importer by value (18.1%) in 2024, through the state monopoly.
Japan	High	0.1%	1.6%	0.4%	−$119.7 m	No	Home of JT Group; imports leaf and produces little; not a top-six importer by value in 2024.
Latin America	Low	13.8%	7.0%	27.4%	+$2.76 bn	no list	Brazil is the largest exporter (21.8% of world export value in 2024).
Middle East	Medium	1.2%	1.1%	0.0%	−$117.8 m	no list	Turkey imported 5.1% of world value in 2024 for its cigarette industry; waterpipe tobacco is a regional speciality.
Australia	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	No	No commercial leaf growing; imports manufactured products under some of the world's highest tobacco taxes.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Tobacco is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list, and no one plans for its supply security. Its criticality is economic, for growers. Radetzki and Wårell show tobacco made up 48% of Malawi's exports in 2013-2017, an extreme case of single-commodity dependence. Morgan describes how tobacco, chrome and sugar from sanctioned Rhodesia left odd traces in trade statistics. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control encourages farmers to switch crops, so falling demand is a slow-moving risk for these economies.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,738 moderately concentrated