Tobacco: Cycles

A price that rose by two-thirds in five years

The World Bank series is a US import unit value. It stood at $6,775 per tonne in July 2026, slightly below $7,025 a year earlier but far above $4,078 five years ago. The ten-year range was $3,973 to $7,054, the high also the record since 2000. In real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $5,095 in 2016 to $3,635 in 2022 as demand weakened, then rose to $5,927 in 2025 as weather-hit harvests in leading exporters tightened supply. As an annual crop, tobacco usually corrects within one or two seasons.

Tobacco, US import u.v. price

Chart: Tobacco, US import u.v. monthly price

Chart: Tobacco, US import u.v. annual real price

Super-cycles in tobacco

Tobacco has no classic super-cycle. Its price is shaped by slowly falling demand outside Asia and Africa and by supply swings in a few exporters. The World Bank series is a US import unit value, so it reflects grade mix as well as market prices. It rose from about $1,000/t in 1971 to $3,681/t in October 1991, held near $4,000-5,000/t through the 2010s, dropped to $3,973/t in August 2021, then climbed to a record $7,054/t in August 2025 after poor crops and low stocks. Global leaf production fell nearly 19% between 2012 and 2024 (Tobacco Insider), which tightened supply even as demand eased. A record Zimbabwe crop in 2026 has already pushed grower prices down 25%.

1. 1972-1976

   General inflation and the commodity boom lifted leaf prices from their early-1970s lows.

   World Bank US import unit value from $1,001/t (August 1971) to $1,905/t (December 1975)

2. 1989-1995

   Prices rose to a peak in 1991, then fell back in the mid-1990s as supply caught up.

   $2,724/t (January 1989) to $3,681/t (October 1991), down to $2,501/t (April 1995)

3. 2006-2014

   Asian and Middle East cigarette demand grew while Western smoking fell; prices rose steadily.

   $2,825/t (April 2006) to $4,607/t (April 2011) and $5,118/t (May 2014)

4. 2014-2021

   Falling cigarette volumes and big crops in Brazil and Zimbabwe pushed prices down.

   $5,118/t (May 2014) to $3,973/t (August 2021)

5. 2022-2026

   Weather-hit crops, low stocks and lower global output lifted prices to records; then record Zimbabwe crops and high carry-over stocks reversed the trend in 2026.

   $4,147/t (September 2022) to a record $7,054/t (August 2025); $6,775/t in July 2026; Zimbabwe grower price $2.49/kg in 2026 against $3.32/kg in 2025

What drives the cycle

• Crop size in Brazil, Zimbabwe, India and Malawi. These four supplied about 47% of world export value in 2024; weather and planting decisions there set the balance.
• Cigarette volumes and switching to smoke-free products. Falling cigarette sales cut leaf demand; heated tobacco still uses leaf but e-cigarettes and pouches do not.
• Taxes and regulation. Excise increases (India's 2026 changes) and WHO FCTC measures reduce consumption.
• Merchant and manufacturer stocks. High carry-over stocks let buyers wait out a crop and push prices down.
• China's import decisions. China's monopoly is the largest importer by value (18.1% in 2024).

Metrics to track