Paraxylene: Cycles

How a building boom squeezed margins for six years

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

PX margins follow two waves: refinery capacity additions in Asia and polyester demand. A building boom in 2017-2019 (Hengli, ZPC) pushed the PX-naphtha spread down from $462/t in 2018 to $283/t by 2024 (Argus). The floor is set when Japanese, Korean and US units close; the ceiling when PTA and polyester run hard and refiners cannot add PX fast. Crude moves the absolute price: PX was below $800/t in November 2024 but about $1,283/t in October 2026, with Brent above $100/bbl after renewed attacks around Hormuz.

The spread to watch PX minus naphtha (CFR Taiwan/China minus CFR Japan)

Shows the aromatics complex margin. $462/t in 2018, $383/t in 2019, $283/t in 2024 (Argus). A second spread, PTA minus 0.655 x PX, shows how margin is shared with PTA makers.

Booms and busts

2018-2019
Hengli and ZPC started multi-Mt PX units as part of China's push to self-sufficiency. The wide spreads that funded them began to close.
PX-naphtha spread $462/t in 2018 and $383/t in 2019 (Argus)
Late 2024
New PTA and PX capacity met weak polyester demand. Chinese PTA margins went below breakeven and mixed xylene stocks rose 75% in a month.
Asian PX below $800/t in mid-November 2024, a multi-year low; PTA margin about $40/t (Argus, Mar 2025)
2026
The near-closure of Hormuz from 28 February cut naphtha and crude supply to Asia. PX rose with crude, and Chinese maintenance tightened supply in October.
$999.33/t CFR Taiwan/China on 2 Mar 2026 (S&P Global); about $1,283/t on 7 Oct 2026 (Procurement Resource)

What drives the cycle

Chinese capacity additions. China reached close to 47 Mt/yr by 2024; each new megacomplex cuts imports from Korea and Japan.
Polyester demand. Textiles and bottles drive PTA runs; Chinese PTA ran at about 70-71% in October 2026 (Procurement Resource).
Crude and naphtha. Set the absolute price; the 2026 Gulf disruption lifted costs across Asia.
Gasoline blending value of xylenes. When US gasoline is strong, mixed xylenes go to the blending pool, tightening PX feed.
Rationalisation. 3.92 Mt/yr closed in 2019-2025 (Argus), mainly in Korea, China, Japan and the US.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
PX-naphtha spread	Margin signal	Argus, Platts
China PX imports (monthly)	Demand for Korean, Japanese and Indian exports	GACC via Mysteel
China PX and PTA operating rates	Supply and demand balance	Mysteel, CCF, Procurement Resource
ZCE PX futures	Daily price discovery in yuan	Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange