Paraxylene: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Paraxylene is separated from mixed xylenes made in refinery reformers and is almost entirely turned into PTA for polyester. Its price follows naphtha and crude, plus a spread set by polyester demand and large Asian capacity additions.
Proxy US PPI: petrochemical manufacturing index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for paraxylene itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkParaxylene and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.52 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.89 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.33 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Crude oil tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.72) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Paraxylene ≈ 7.55 × (Crude oil)0.71 R² 0.82 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 7.0% higher paraxylene price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/bbl.Chart: Paraxylene and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Paraxylene price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Paraxylene starts as naphtha, so crude sets its floor and the paraxylene-naphtha spread is the margin that traders watch. The proxy index correlates with Brent at 0.52 monthly and 0.89 yearly.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsReformers produce xylenes alongside petrol components, and many Asian refineries are built around paraxylene units. The refinery index moves with the petrochemical proxy at 0.68 monthly and 0.90 yearly, reflecting that shared hardware and feed.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNearly all paraxylene is oxidised into PTA, so the two are priced as one chain in Asia and PTA margins decide paraxylene run rates. The cyclic intermediates proxy moves with this proxy at 0.50 monthly and 0.73 yearly.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPolyester fibre and PET bottles are the final outlets, so textile demand ultimately sets paraxylene volumes. The fibre index tracks the proxy only loosely, 0.19 monthly and 0.52 yearly, as spinners' margins absorb much of the swing.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsToluene can be converted into xylenes, adding paraxylene supply when the spread over toluene is wide. The two share the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.