Gallium: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Gallium is extracted from the caustic liquor of alumina refineries, mostly in China, which supplies nearly all primary output and has restricted exports. Chips for radio, power electronics and LEDs drive demand.
No public price Gallium has no public monthly price series: Priced mainly in Chinese markets; no free public series.What its price moves with
Gallium is recovered from the Bayer liquor when bauxite is refined into alumina for aluminium. Only refineries with recovery units produce it, so supply depends on Chinese alumina output and policy.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.The Bayer process dissolves alumina from bauxite in hot caustic soda, and gallium accumulates in that liquor until it is extracted. Caustic soda costs thus sit underneath gallium supply, though they are a minor factor.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Gallium nitride transistors switch power efficiently in chargers, data centres and electric cars, and gallium arsenide chips run radio front ends. Growth here raises gallium demand and its strategic importance.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.LEDs are built on gallium nitride, so the shift to LED lighting created steady gallium demand. LED prices have fallen so far that this is now a mature, volume-driven use.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.China placed export licensing on gallium and germanium together in 2023 and banned sales to the US in 2024, a ban suspended in November 2025 while licensing stays, so both carry a policy-driven premium outside China.
No public price for germanium, so the link is explained in words only.Copper indium gallium selenide thin-film cells and gallium-doped silicon wafers use gallium, the latter now common in mainstream solar cells. The doping amounts are tiny per cell, but volumes are huge.
No public price for solar photovoltaics, so the link is explained in words only.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.