Gallium: Cycles

How Chinese policy, not mining, sets the price

Gallium prices reflect Chinese policy more than mining. Low prices in the 2010s, as Chinese capacity grew, coincided with closures in Germany, Hungary and Kazakhstan. The average US import value then rose from $277/kg in 2021 to $580/kg in 2025. China introduced export licensing in August 2023 and banned exports to the United States in December 2024. In November 2025 it lifted that ban for a year. Pitron cited about $150/kg in his 2020 book (pdf p. 19). New capacity announced in Australia, Canada and elsewhere will take years.

US price, Average unit value of US gallium metal imports

Super-cycles in gallium

Gallium is a small, opaque market with no exchange, and its price has swung on Chinese capacity and policy rather than on a general metals cycle. Rapid Chinese capacity growth from 2005 drove prices down to about $128/kg by 2016. Prices in China then cycled around production cost of roughly 1,000 yuan/kg. Export licensing from August 2023 and a ban on exports to the US in December 2024 split the market: Chinese prices stayed moderate while prices outside China rose to records of $1,850/kg in April 2026.

1. 2005-2016

   Chinese alumina refiners added gallium circuits much faster than demand grew, lifting world primary capacity to about 730 t by 2015 while only part was used. Germany, Hungary and Kazakhstan stopped production. The market stayed in surplus.

   99.99% gallium averaged about $128/kg (CIF EU, January-July 2016), down about 40% in a year and about 57% below the 2001-02 average (BRGM 2016).

2. 2018-2019

   Chinese prices rose on hopes of stockpiling and LED demand, then fell as LED and smartphone demand weakened. Producers cut output; national utilisation fell below 50% in June 2019.

   Chinese 99.99% price reached a four-year high of 1,450-1,500 yuan/kg (March 2018) and fell to a 17-month low of 960-1,010 yuan/kg in Q2 2019, below estimated production cost of about 1,000 yuan/kg; export prices fell from $205/kg to $150/kg FOB in October-December 2018 (Argus 2019).

3. 2023-2026

   China required export licences from August 2023 and banned exports to the US in December 2024, suspending the US ban in November 2025 for a year. Chinese unwrought exports fell 94% in 2025. Outside buyers turned to recycled metal and to new projects in Australia, Greece and the US.

   Rotterdam rose from $250-265/kg (June 2023) to $400-450/kg (October 2023), $575/kg (March 2024) and a record $1,850/kg (April 2026); Chinese domestic price moved only from 1,680-1,730 to 2,000-2,070 yuan/kg in 2023 (Fastmarkets; Bloomberg; CSIS). US import unit value rose from $277/kg (2021) to $580/kg (2025) (USGS).

What drives the cycle

• Chinese export policy. With 99% of primary supply, China's licences and bans now set the price outside China. Watch the suspension of the US ban, due to lapse on 27 November 2026.
• Alumina output and recovery circuits. Supply is capped by Bayer liquor volumes and by how many refineries run gallium circuits; Chinese capacity of 1,600 t far exceeds output, so China can flood or starve the market.
• GaN power electronics and RF chips. Growth in fast chargers, data-centre power supplies, EV inverters and 5G radios drives demand for high-purity gallium.
• Defence demand and stockpiling. Radar and electronic-warfare systems use GaN with no substitute, so governments stockpile and finance non-Chinese supply, adding demand at any price.
• LED and consumer electronics cycle. LED lighting and phones were the largest volume uses in the 2010s; downturns in these sectors caused the 2019 slump.

Metrics to track