HVDC links: Geopolitics and regulation

Anchors, maritime disputes and grids that bind allies together

HVDC links cross borders and seabeds, so they carry geopolitical weight: they can bind allies' grids together, but they are exposed to maritime disputes, sabotage and changing government support.

Tailwinds

State Grid plans 15 new UHV lines in 2026 to 2030 within about CNY 4 trillion of grid investment, raising inter-regional transmission capacity by about 35%¹⁵

The EIB approved EUR 1.6 billion and the Connecting Europe Facility EUR 578 million for the Bay of Biscay link¹⁷

National Grid signed converter and cable frameworks with ten supplier groups, then about GBP 12 billion of civil works frameworks with eight contractors⁷⁹

National Grid expects its interconnectors to help avoid about 100 million tonnes of CO2 between 2020 and 2030⁸

Headwinds

The EUR 1.9 billion, 1,200 km Great Sea Interconnector (Greece to Cyprus) has stalled over Turkish maritime claims and a cost-sharing dispute between Athens and Nicosia¹³

A ship's anchor damaged the EstLink 2 Finland to Estonia link on 25 December 2024; it returned to the market in June 2025¹⁴

The UK stopped considering a contract for difference for Xlinks, a 3,800 km Morocco to UK subsea project planned to deliver 3.6 GW for about 20 hours a day¹²

DC cable lead times exceed five years and cable prices have nearly doubled since 2019¹¹

Subsea cables need consents from every state whose waters they cross, and contested exclusive economic zones can block surveys. Long links to other continents also raise questions of dependence on a single foreign supply route.

Sources

1. National Grid names eight for GBP 12bn HVDC framework The Construction Index, 2025
2. National Grid announces commercial operations of Viking Link, the world's longest land and subsea interconnector National Grid, 2023
3. National Grid awards HVDC supply chain framework contracts National Grid, 2025
4. Rising component prices and supply chain pressures are hindering the development of transmission grid infrastructure IEA, 2025
5. UK backs away from CfD for 3,800 km Morocco-UK HVDC interconnection Enerdata, 2025
6. EU-backed electricity link to Cyprus stalls amid regional tensions Euronews, 2026
7. Smooth repair work brings EstLink 2 connection back to market already on Friday Elering, 2025
8. China plans 15 new ultra-high-voltage transmission lines by 2030 Enerdata, 2026
9. EIB supports with EUR 1.6 bn the strategic Bay of Biscay electricity interconnection between Spain and France European Investment Bank, 2025