HVDC links: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
HVDC links carry bulk power over long distances or under the sea. Costs are dominated by converter stations, built by a few suppliers, and by cable. Prices follow copper, aluminium, semiconductors and factory slots booked years ahead.
Proxy US PPI: power and distribution transformers index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Jul 2026There is no free public price for HVDC links itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkHVDC links and Transformers and power electronics
Monthly changes 0.91 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.98 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.94 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Jul 2026 HVDC links ≈ 0.655 × (Transformers and power electronics)1.03 R² 0.99 On this fit, a 10% higher transformers and power electronics price goes with a 10.3% higher HVDC links price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and index.Chart: HVDC links and Transformers and power electronics prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: HVDC links price against Transformers and power electronics price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.The site uses one transformer price index for both AC and HVDC, so the series are identical and no statistics are shown. Converter transformers are a large part of an HVDC station, which is why the shared proxy is reasonable.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Converter stations rely on large power electronic valves and transformers. The related transformer index moves almost in step with this proxy, correlating at 0.91 for monthly moves and 0.98 for yearly moves, because both measure the same equipment market.
strong co-movement month to month · 247 months Show chartsLong HVDC projects spend heavily on cable, especially under the sea. The cable index correlates at 0.34 for monthly moves and 0.72 for yearly moves, reflecting the shared grid investment cycle and copper costs rather than a fixed formula.
weak co-movement month to month · 247 months Show chartsHVDC cables use copper or aluminium cores, and copper also sits in converter transformers. Copper feeds through contract adjustment clauses, which is why the monthly link to this proxy is weak at 0.22, with copper leading by about one month.
weak co-movement month to month · 247 months Show chartsModern HVDC cables use cross-linked polyethylene insulation, which is replacing oil-impregnated paper. The resin is a modest share of cost, and monthly moves correlate at 0.28 with the plastics proxy, rising only to 0.42 for yearly moves.
weak co-movement month to month · 247 months Show chartsDistant offshore wind farms need HVDC export links, so offshore build-out drives orders for converters and cable. Both depend on the same scarce factory capacity, which has pushed up prices and lengthened delivery times.
little or none co-movement month to month · 182 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.